shuttdown Blog

Posted on Mon, Apr 13, 2020

Why do People Sell Picks?
Posted by shuttdown
Posted on Mon, Apr 13, 2020

Before you even consider buying picks from someone, it would be highly rational for you to ask yourself: why are they selling picks when, if their picks are so good, they could just use them to make bank on their own? For the majority of sports bettors who sell picks, the reason is that they want risk-free money without regard for the actual returns of their picks. Google right now ‘Expert Sports Picks’ and you will see ads for slimy firms that want you to buy their six week top of the line picks package for $499.99 which guarantees you fat stacks and fresh tendies. Complete lies. Those firms (although smaller and more subtle these days) rely on a flow of new customers because their current client base already figured out that they got scammed.

The "good news" is that a lot of picks are free these days in the age of the internet, but those free picks are still used as a deceptive tool without regard for your backroll. Lots of media outlets from ESPN to independent sports blogs will lure in bettors of all degrees with free picks, but don’t be fooled: the picks are not worth the pixels which display them! Firstly, the picks are almost always absolute favorites with no serious return (stuff like -160) because even if the team is overvalued and not worth the low payout, those types of picks are still most likely to win in the short run, albeit for penny profits. This distracts bettors with win percent when they need to be focused on ROI. This is an easy way for a site to convey that it makes good picks when in reality they are just popular picks. Not many free pick sites track the progress of their picks, and those that make claims of their success have all the reasons to lie about their success. It's not like the sports betting police are gonna audit them. Secondly, sites use these free picks to sucker in traffic, and it works. People who read the daily picks are also likely to skim the contentless sports articles on the site. It’s a marketing tactic to have free picks so they can get more clicks, and the intern who the website poses as their “sports betting expert” is just picking and choosing the site’s picks from what more popular websites are offering as free picks, who themselves likely just guessed based on surface-level info and 'gut feelings'. When sites say the Patriots will cover or the Sox will win, nobody calls them on their non-creative picks, especially if they can draft a convincing reason as to why they have inside knowledge on the action. Again, it's just noise meant to sell ads and content. Yet, in all honesty, this is good for my business because it puts more dumb money into the market, making our smart money all the more valuable. 

So why am I selling picks? Simple, three main reasons: I am broke (as we all say we are), I am in a career that prohibits sports betting as part of my contract, and I do not have access to a trusted betting infrastructure needed to bet frequently and discretely. All this will change in time, but for right now I can not wager without fear of getting in serious trouble with my work, even on offshore bitcoin sites. However, my career has given me great computational and programming skills, enabling me to build my MLB algorithm and test it using simulations and stochastic modeling, so in a way, the driving reason to why I cannot bet is the same reason why I am so good at predicting profitable bets in the first place. Ironic.

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