Making Sense of NHL Betting Angles
Posted by bleuze
Posted on Sun, Sep 22, 2019
I am going to share a pair of specific NHL money line betting angles that have been successful over an extended time frame for me. In doing so, I will follow up with deductive reasoning which details why these wagering systems make sense and aren’t purely coincidental.
1. Play against any money line home team that is -100 to -150 which allowed 1 goal or less in their previous game, versus an opponent that has allowed 4 goals or more in each of their last 2 outings.
Public betting has overwhelmingly sided with the home team in a high percentage of these situations. After all, the home teams were coming off a strong defensive effort, and their opponents had exhibited a combination of poor goaltending and shaky defensive play in 2 straight games. Furthermore, the money line price was very reasonable with all things considered. However, this exemplifies one of my favorite sports betting adages. “If it looks too good to be true then most times it is”.
2. Play on any money line road favorite which has lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, and has a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent with a win percentage of less than .500.
There is a lesson to be learned when assessing this NHL betting algorithm. It is easy to fade a road favorite that has NOT been playing well for a relatively long stretch. Nevertheless, keep in mind, the best sport sbooks do NOT possess an ounce of generosity, and certainly do NOT just give money away. If they deem the road team to be a money line favorite when these circumstances take place, there is intelligent reasoning behind it. One of the critical errors that sports bettors make is focusing way too much on one side’s recent results. Conversely, they either ignore or fail to give opposing teams latest performances equal evaluation time. Avoiding that cardinal sin can go a long way in making successful picks.
If you follow the above two rules, then you should be a successful NHL bettor!